# Thesis Concept of *political order*, compared to a *political movement*. Political order shapes the nerrative and its antagonists are forced to abide by its rules also. > [!quote] > The phrase "political order" is meant to connote a constellation of ideologies, policies, and constituencies that shape American politics in ways that endure beyond the two-, four-, and six-year election cycles. [...] > > Establishing a political order demands far more than winning an election or two. It requires deep-pocketed donors (and political action committees) to invest in promising candidates over the long term; the establishment of think tanks and policy networks to turn political ideas into actionable programs; a raising political party able to consistently win over multiple electoral constituencies; a capacity to shape political opinion both at the highest levels (the Supreme Court) and across popular print and broadcast media; and a moral perspective able to inspire voters with visions of the good life. Gerstle highlights two major political orders of the US: - [[The New Deal Order]] - 1932 - 1980. Started by [[FDR Presidency|FDR]], ended with [[Reagan Presidency]]. [[Carter Presidency]] as a transitionary period. - [[The Neoliberal Order]] - 1980 - 2020, with [[Trump Presidency|Trump]] as a trasitionary president. > [!thought] > Never easy to demarcate eras; thus discussions around Carter, Obama, and Trump are quite nuanced. Especially with Trump, we're not yet sure what the new order would be. Political Orders must encompass the opposing party also; [[Eisenhower Presidency|Eisenhower]] acquiesce and continued the New Deal, [[Clinton Presidency|Clinton]] as a "Democrat Eisenhower", cemented neoliberalism in the post cold-war era. Clinton's enthusiastic neoliberalism - deregulation and financialization - is highlighted throughout the book. In that vein, it's not constructive to blame Bush / Republicans for the [[2008 Financial Crisis]]. Both parties thought Greenspan was a genius and was following the same neoliberal playbook. This also explains how [[Bernie]] / [[Trump Presidency|Trump]] felt so alien. A political order defines the terms of political disrouse. [[Clinton Presidency|Clinton]] and [[Gingrich]] were fighting under the same premise (Thought - Is this an instance of the [[Narcissism of Small Differences]]?), but with different spins and emphasis. However, Trump and Bernie challenged the discourse altogether and ultimately changed the rules of the game. In a similar vein, *polarization* is not necessarily bad thing; it is the symptom of a disintegrating political order and lack of a common denominator. One cannot complain "It doesn't matter which party you vote for" anymore. > [!thought] > As per [[5-4 Podcast]] mentioned, We're living under the order of [[The Federalist Society|FedSoc]] and Antonio Scalia. Even the liberal justices and jurists are articulating their arguments under the *originalist* positions. In that sense, we can see the politcal order's power to set the grounds of the discourse. Gerstle highlights the role of [[Communism]] in the twentieth century. It offered an alternative competing ideology against the free-market capitalism. Communism (and the specter of the great depression) forced a *class compromise*. This started to erode during the [[Reagan Presidency|Reagan]] era (evident to everyone that Communism is a lagging ideology) and cemented during the Clinton era ([[Francis Fukuyama|Fukuyama]] esque victory hymn). > [!thought] > Corey Robin's [[The Reactionary Mind]] also covered the end of communism and the sense of purposelessness and ennui (is this the right word?) that struck America, especially the conservatives. ## [[The Neoliberal Order]] - political - deregulation, war on crime. - economical - cultural - [[Friedrich Hayek|Hayek]]'s spontaneous order, while embracing *neo-Victorian* ethics. - Moral Codes - the conflict of neo-Victorian and Cosmopolitanism. # Part 1. [[The New Deal Order]] ## 1. Rise New Deal Era, against Herbert Hoover. Spectre of the Great Depression. Dominance of [[Keynesian Economics]] to stimulate economy and control the boom-bust cycle. The need for big government to fight the Great Depression, then the [[World War II]], then the Cold War. New Deal Era Policies / events - treaty of detroit - *the switch in time that sived nine* - creation of SEC, social security - "great compression" > [!quote] New Liberalism > "brought into politics a distinct moral perspective: first, that public good ought to take precedence over private right; second, that government was the instrument through which public good would be pursued and achieved; and third, that the goal of government action—and a central part of the pursuit of the public good—ought to be to enhance every individual’s opportunities for personal fulfillment." (Gary Gerstle, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order) New Deal Liberalism as the Third Way between Laissez-faire and collectivism. On communism - the fear of being labeled "being soft on communism" pushed Democrats to center; however, the need to appease the working class also moved the Republicans to center also. 20th century's global fear of communism is hard to understand now. but this was one of the largest motivating force. Post-communism - Neoliberalism was unfethered during the Clinton administration as there's no fear of communism to appease the working class. LBJ's *Great society*. Engel v. Vitale. Executive Order 11246. ## 2. Fall - the [[Oil Shock]] - civil rights - inefficiencies of american industries in the 70s compared to the Germans and the Japanese. - Carter started deregulation ([Airline Deregulation Act of 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airline_Deregulation_Act)) # Part 2. [[The Neoliberal Order]] ## 3. Beginnings Connection between classical, new deal, and neoliberalism. - poltiical liberalism (declaration of independence, bill of rights) - economical liberalism (adam smith) - cultural contradiction of slavery. examples of chaos; "blacks don't know the order", Paris Commune of 1871, boom and bust of business cycles "order over freedom" - big shift in liberalism; Liberalism as the third way between *laissez-faire* and *collectivism*. > [!note] Neoliberal strategy > > 1. "ways to encase free markets in rules governing property and exchange and the circulation of money and credit. > 2. "apply market principles not just to those two areas traditionally identified as market driven but to all areas of human endeavor" - aka *homo economicus* > 3. "recuperate the utopian promise of personal freedom embedded in classical liberalism" Especially with the third stage, writers like [[Ayn Rand]] and myths around America's birth and the Western frontier pushed the creative and spontaneous vision of America ([[Friedrich Hayek|Hayek]]'s *spontaneous order*). ## 4. Ascent ### Organizations and Movements - [Powell Memorandum](https://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/powellmemo/) - Olin Foundation, later [[The Federalist Society]] - Cato Institute (Started as Koch Foundation) - The Heritage Foundation - The Businesss Round Table - PACs - William Simon's *A Time for Truth*, bringing [[Friedrich Hayek|Hayek]] / Friedman ideas to the masses. Reagan as the standard bearer of the neoliberal order. [Fairness Doctrine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairness_doctrine) - introduced in 1949; ended in 1987 with Reagan's veto. Press was no longer obligated to be neutral, opening up for a "marketplace of ideas". Fox News started soon afterwards. Democratic leaderships' fear that they may never be able to win elections. *Atari democrats*, including Clinton. [[Silicon Valley]] - marriage of tech counterculture with venture capital. SDI - seen as a way to break the symmetry of the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) and win the cold war. ## 5. Triumph - [[The End of the Cold War]], and how unexpected and exceptional it was. Gorbachev voluntarily difused the USSR. The alternative history (Deng-style China or Putin-style Russia) would've changed the history. - [[George HW Bush Presidency]], then [[Clinton Presidency|Clinton]]. * NAFTA, WTO. Clinton-Newt Gingritch feud, but in many ways, their policies are more similar than different. Battle for the Silicon Valley. > [!important] Really like this observation. The futurists - Alvin Toffler, "*the third wave*", etc. ### [[Clinton Presidency]] Started off as "new left", but failures - failure of health care reform (also Hilary's work), failure of 1994 election, then shifted to push Reaganite policies. "*triangulation* - appropriate Republican ideas, but make it into their own" - as a true test of *political order*. Alan Greenspan and Lawrence Summers wielding enormous power. Deregulations of this era: - Telecommunication Act of 1996 (repelling the 1934 act) - banking (repelling the 1933 Glass-Steagall) Cosmopolitan vs neo-Victorian ethics. Broken Window Theory as a theoretical support for mass incarceration. ## 6. Hubris ### Bush Administration Three major events - 2000 election, [[September 11]], [[2008 Financial Crisis]]. Lack of justification for the Iraq War; inadequate preparation for the subsequent nation building. Housing Bubble - Push for home ownership, Subprime Mortage, aided by the financial deregulation. **Common theme** - haphazard neglect masquarading as "following neoliberal ethos of allowing private hands to take lead". Weak SEC during the Bush administrations. ### Obama's Burden [[2008 Financial Crisis]], somber inauguration speech. - "Clinton Wall Street Team" to immediately deal with the financial crisis. Robert Rubin's group. - conservative moves - radical move to nationalize / split banks were rejected. The counterfactual of, *what if Al Gore won the 2000 election instead of Bush?* - not much would've been different, as the both parties were both persuing neoliberal policies. ## 7. Coming Apart *Coming Apart* by Charles Murray, about Fishtown, PA. [[The New Jim Crow]], soon to expand to [[Black Lives Matter]]. Precariats - the gig workers Tea Party White backlash against Obama / Cosmopolitanism on [[Bernie]], [[Occupy Wall Street]]. > [!quote] On Occupy Wall Street's limitations > "Occupy never issued an effective manifesto (along the lines of the New Left’s Port Huron Statement), or disseminated an agreed-upon list of concrete demands, or formulated a strategy for achieving them. Nevertheless, this protest, in the longer term, did mark a turning point in American politics and intellectual life." (Gary Gerstle, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order) [[Black Lives Matter|BLM]]'s disillusion with Obama. ### Trump as an individual Quicksilver individual, but there are threads of consistency from 1980s. - white America - ethnonationalism. Campaign against the [Central Park Five](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Park_jogger_case). Birther movement. - Anti-globalism - against free movement of goods and people. Against WTO and NAFTA. - Anti-cosmopolitan - most surprising given his NYC / elite background. Examples of McDonald's and WWE aesthetics. - Trump made politics *fun* and unpredictable. ### [[Hilary Clinton]] Heir Apparent and standard bearer of neoliberalism. Caught off guard both from the left ([[Bernie]]) and the right ([[Trump Presidency|Trump]]; not focusing on the Midwest / Rust Belt). Counterfactual; what if Hilary won? Perhaps the neoliberal order could continue for one more election cycle, but the order was seriously eroded after the 2008 financial crisis. ## 8. The End [[Trump Presidency]]. Some traces of libertarian / neoliberal beliefs sustained - Trump's tax cuts, collaborations with Pence and [[McConnell]]. ethnonational rather than economical populism - against immigrants, not robber barrons. Trump dismantled the Neoliberal order, but the new order is still undefined. [[Biden Presidency]] united center and left, but it's to be seen if that is the new political order.